Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) agricultural futures closed mixed on Friday, with corn and soybean rising and wheat falling.
The most active corn contract for December delivery soared 18.5 cents, or 2.82 percent, to settle at 6.74 U.S. dollars per bushel. September wheat fell 12.75 cents, or 1.34 percent, to settle at 9.365 dollars per bushel. November soybean rose 8.75 cents, or 0.62 percent, to settle at 14.2425 dollars per bushel.
Corn leads the recovery as U.S. climate outlooks turn more threatening. Net soil moisture loss will be ongoing in all but the Upper Midwest. The return of widespread heat is probable beginning in early July and crop stress will be mounting if current 30-day outlooks verify.
Volatility stays elevated indefinitely, but most important in the long run is whether the United States and North Hemisphere production is allowed to match global demand needs. Chicago-based research company AgResource’s weather concerns are high.
U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) reported on Friday that through the week ending June 16, U.S. exporters sold a net 26 million bushels of corn, as against 6 million bushels in the previous week; 18 million bushels of wheat, as against 9 million bushels; and one million bushels of soybeans, as against 12 million bushels.
U.S. exporters sold 10 million bushels of soybeans for new crop delivery on Friday, with total 2022-2023 soybean export commitments a record large at 491 million bushels, as against 277 million bushels a year ago in mid-June. New crop soybean sales already account for 22 percent of USDA forecast.
Extreme heat will be anchored across Central and Eastern Europe, including Western Ukraine, into July 5. This will trim EU corn yield potential further as Hungary, Serbia and Romania account for 30 percent of total European corn output. Overall, weather patterns are far less than ideal in the United States, Europe and Argentina.
It will be much warmer in the 10-15 day period across the U.S. Plains, Delta and Southern Midwest. Heat/dryness will be featured in early and mid-July.