Yet OPEC continues to fail to pump at expected levels: File Image / Pixabay
Maybe the demand for energy won’t be so intense after all: that was the sentiment traders had on Monday as we industrial data showing signs of weakness forced them to associate gains, albeit minimally.
Intermediate West Texas Rose 16 cents settle in $ 82.44 per barrel after hitting earlier $ 83.87, the highest intraday level since October 2014; Brent fell 53 cents to end the session at $ 84.33 per barrel.
Commercial activity is the result of the announcement of the fall in US industrial production in September 1.3 percent, below estimates, and it was sufficient for Bart Melek, head of raw materials strategy at TD Securities, to point out that “if these negative trends continue, this implies that industrial demand for energy could be lower than expected in the future”.
Industrial energy demand could be lower than expected in the future
Bart Melek, TD Securities
John kemp, a commodities analyst at Reuters, expressed a similar view on Monday: “The position of oil in general, and distillates in particular, are becoming congested transactions, increasing the risk of a sharp reversal in prices if consumption turns out to be more. low than expected, or if fund managers are trying to turn a profit. “
However, given the current circumstances, it seems unlikely that concern over the energy crisis will abate anytime soon: the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) said it had reduced its production 15 percent deeper than expected in September, compared to 16 percent in August and 9 percent in July, due to Angola, Nigeria, and Azerbaijan being unable to increase production due to lack of investment, exploration and other issues.
Additionally, the results of several Monday auctions suggest that Gazprom PSJC, Europethe largest supplier of natural gas in, does not plan to send more gas via the main transit routes through Ukraine next month.
Hans van cleef, senior energy economist at ABN Amro Bank, said: “These kind of signals Russia build on the fear that there will be shortages of natural gas during the upcoming winter season. “
It all grew Marco dunand, the chairman and managing director of the commodities trader Mercuria Energy Group Ltd., to make a familiar prediction: that it is “possible” that oil hits $ 100 per barrel this winter.
He said: “It’s hard to think that market psychology can be anything other than bullish before winter: we have a bullish outlook on commodities and energy.
That’s not to say that energy producers are reluctant to pump everything, at least in the United States: According to a report by the United States government, the Permian Basin of West Texas and New Mexico increases production to an average 4.826 million barrels per day (bpj) in October, nearly a 4.913 million barrels per day record set in March 2020 just before the pandemic.